Free tool · For DTC brands on Shopify · $1M–$30M/yr

Cost of Overselling Calculator

Overselling — taking an order for stock you don't actually have — looks free at checkout and expensive everywhere after it: a refund, a "sorry, we oversold" email, the Stripe fee you never get back, and a customer who may never return. Plug in your own numbers and estimate what a month of oversold orders really costs you.

Your numbers

Adjust any field. Everything updates instantly. Nothing is sent anywhere — this runs entirely in your browser.

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Your estimate

Your est. monthly cost
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Your est. annual cost
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Where an oversell leaks money (your inputs)Per month
Lost gross profit on cancellations Cancelled orders × AOV × margin $0
Stripe fees eaten on refunds Cancelled orders × (2.9% of AOV + $0.30) — US standard: the processing fee is not returned when you refund $0
Support & resolution labor Every oversold order × support cost $0
Lost future value of churned customers Oversold orders × churn % × repeat-customer value $0
Your estimated monthly cost of overselling $0
Read this as your own estimate, not a measured fact. Every figure above is calculated only from the numbers you typed in, using the simple, transparent assumptions noted on each line. The Stripe line uses the US standard 2.9% + $0.30 and assumes the fee is not returned on a refund; your rate and refund policy may differ — adjust to your business. This is illustrative of what a brand with your inputs could be exposed to. It is not a claim about any real customer, and not a guarantee.

Why overselling is so easy to do — and so hard to see

Overselling almost never comes from carelessness. It comes from lag: your Shopify inventory, your 3PL or warehouse counts, and your channels (POS, Amazon, wholesale) drift out of sync, so the store keeps selling a unit that's already gone. A single sync that quietly stopped overnight can let a launch sell hundreds of orders you can't fulfill — and you find out from the refunds, not an alert.

What Ops Monitor does about this

Ops Monitor connects to your Shopify and Stripe with read-only API keys and continuously watches for the inventory drift and stalled syncs that cause overselling — then alerts you by email or Slack the moment counts start diverging, before they turn into a sale you can't ship.

It is read-only: it never writes to your store and never moves money. It detects and alerts — it does not block a checkout or guarantee you'll never oversell. But catching one stalled sync before a launch often saves a brand more than a year of the $149/month price. If you'd rather have a person look once, a $29 one-time Ops Audit reviews your setup and flags where overselling is most likely to happen.

See for yourself

Start monitoring in minutes with read-only keys — $149/month, self-serve, cancel anytime.

Start monitoring — $149/mo →